Quantum computers promise more than code breaking. They could unlock commercial value in areas like banking, automotive and optimization industries. Businesses need to not only prepare for quantum attacks, but also ready their organizations to tap into the economic benefit of adopting quantum technologies.
Now, researchers at the Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) at the University of Waterloo and quantum software provider softwareQ have developed one of the world's first quantum resource estimation tools to calculate the realistic costs of quantum attacks and how to use quantum computers effectively.
The potential threat of someone breaking the RSA code, the encryption scheme that underpins secure online banking and e-commerce, motivated Dr. Michele Mosca, co-founder of IQC and softwareQ, and Dr. Vlad Gheorghiu, softwareQ's co-founder and CEO, to develop a framework to estimate quantum attacks so that industries can be prepared
"We can't be one day late, and part of that calculus is knowing how big of a computer is needed," says Mosca, professor in the Department of Combinatorics and Optimization. "But beyond that, if you want to derive commercial value from quantum computers, you have to know what they are good for and how powerful a quantum computer you are going to need. That's a moving target as hardware and algorithms continue to improve."
The new tool is a blueprint for businesses to calculate the realistic costs and resources needed to run a quantum algorithm. If a city were to repave a road, they would have to estimate all materials, labour and equipment needed to get the job done. This softwareQ tool is a breakthrough for estimating quantum computing resources because running large quantum algorithms, like those that break cryptography, is complex and requires significant overhead beyond just counting qubits the quantum equivalent of a computer bit.
Gheorghiu, who is also an IQC research affiliate, says a breakthrough demonstration is needed to practically showcase quantum computers' potential. Like how ChatGPT shows the impact of generative artificial intelligence. For now, it's unlikely that industry is developing technologies as assertively as they could which is where resource estimation comes in.
"Many companies are going to be too late," he says. "Our framework allows businesses to start thinking about quantum computing practically and gives them an idea of the landscape and what they need. And accelerate research and development of quantum technologies in general."
Mosca says it's difficult to accurately predict when the most secure encryption codes will be compromised. Timeline estimates for when that size quantum computer will be operational range from up to five years (14 per cent likely) and 10 years (34 per cent likely.)
"It's very risky to assume it won't happen," Mosca says. "We are already at a point where quantum hardware can do stuff we couldn't realistically do with classical hardware. That wasn't true five years ago."
Quantum computers are complex, and a quantum resource estimation framework is not a trivial tool, Mosca says.
"Because of the algorithms, layers of techniques, computer architecture, error rates, error correcting codes from the bottom up, if someone asks how many physical qubits a certain task requires, it's hard to know without a resource estimation tool."
Read more about their findings, Quantum resource estimation for large scale quantum algorithms.
