A steady decline in Canada's reading, science and math scores signals serious trouble ahead, according to a Simon Fraser University professor.
Canada still ranks in the top 10 of 81 countries participating in The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's large-scale Program for International Student Assessment (PISA). But provinces need to act before our secondary school system falls below the average, says John Richards, professor emeritus at SFU's School of Public Policy.
One province, Newfoundland and Labrador, has already slipped below the OECD average. If the trend continues, Canada will have the same mediocre public school system as in U.S., warns Richards, author of "The Case of the Boiling Frogs: Provincial Indifference to Declining Education Outcomes" published by the C.D. Howe Institute.
"We should be conscious of the fact that the United States has declined significantly in its secondary schooling. In math in particular, the U.S. ranks mediocre," Richards explains. "So why is America losing its place in economic development? Part of it is mediocre public schooling."
PISA is a rigorous international survey conducted every three years to measure how well 15-year-old students from OECD and partner countries read and answer math and science questions at reasonable secondary school levels.
Canada's scores in all three were well above the benchmark average (500) when the assessments began in 2000. Today, all three are lower than initial scores.
"We're not going to have a well-functioning economy if the great majority don't have at least secondary-level and preferably some kind of post-secondary education," says Richards, a C.D. Howe Institute research fellow.
"Education doesn't have to be an academic path towards a PhD. Becoming a good carpenter, a good IT person, a good plumber: these are all important skills that are certainly not superficial, or easy."
Solving the math problem: Look to Quebec
Math is on the decline across the board in Canada, with PISA math scores in all six of the small population provinces now below the 500 benchmark. Five of the six are more-or-less at the OECD average; Newfoundland and Labrador is below.
Some of this may be explained by population size and the larger province's abilities to attract teachers. But the problem may also be how teachers are trained, says Richards, pointing to Quebec, which has consistently had the highest math score of all Canadian provinces.
"The best explanation is that secondary-level math teachers in Quebec are required to undertake roughly twice as many courses in math as is typical across Canada," Richards explains. "Other provinces should be doing more of what Quebec is doing in terms of math training and trying to solve the math phobia' problem among would-be teachers."
Improving outcomes for Indigenous students: Follow B.C.'s lead
More work needs to be done in improving the outcome for Indigenous students. In some B.C. school districts, Indigenous students perform at roughly the same level as non-Indigenous students.
B.C. regularly assesses and publishes Indigenous student learning outcomes at the school district level. The Indigenous B.C. high school completion rate is the highest among the provinces. B.C.'s Indigenous results are not ideal but are probably better than the other provinces, notes Richards.
Without high-school certification, young Indigenous adults are unlikely to get post-secondary training and good employment, he adds.
Calling all PACS: Time to ring alarm
"Sometimes, upset parents is good," says Richards. This is where traditional parent associations can play a big role in advocating for more effective teacher training, teaching strategies and curriculum, all of which are determined at the provincial level.
In 2000, Alberta, for example, boasted the highest averages among the provinces. When it started to decline, parent demonstrations in front of the Alberta legislature spurred the government to make changes as a result, Alberta's position has improved, says Richards.
Looking ahead
PISA 2022 was administered immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic. While nearly all PISA country scores suffered from learning loss stemming from the pandemic, Canada's PISA slip began well before COVID-related school disruptions, says Richards.
PISA 2025 is currently underway in Canada, and results will be published in 2026.
