History has a way of repeating itself. But unlike science, built on general principles and testable theories about the natural world, history examines past events and human actions using evidence and interpretation. This delineation is critical when predicting earthquakes and tsunami waves for Canada's west coast, as researchers just don't have the scientific data required to make communities safe - at least not yet - so current calculations are informed by historic natural disasters in faraway places like Japan and Indonesia.
To counter this dearth of data, a new Western study buoyed traditional statistics with novel machine learning techniques, using artificial intelligence, to test early warning models for Tofino, B.C. - a popular surfing and tourist destination on Vancouver Island's west coast.
Overall, the collected data shows waiting longer to issue a tsunami early warning message performs better in terms of safely and orderly evacuating the most amount of people than a shorter response time. However, this approach is problematic as longer waiting times may make warning messages less effective and ultimately, more deadly for evacuees and emergency responders.
