This blog, prepared by researcher Frank Clayton, examines a recent analysis of the current supply of short-term land for housing and its adequacy as prepared by the City of Guelph's planning staff.
The City report calculates that the City of Guelph has a 6.2-year supply of short-term residential land (for all types of housing combined), double CUR's calculation of 3.1 years. For ground-related housing (singles, semis, and townhouses), we estimate the supply is even less 2.5 years. Thus, the City's short-term land supply is significantly below the Province's policy of a minimum supply of four years (based on maintaining a three-year supply at all times with annual monitoring).
We calculate that Guelph has a shortfall of short-term residential land equivalent to 708 units of ground-related housing (291 singles and semis and 417 townhouses) and a shortfall of short-term sites for apartments of 454 units.
Remember that this shortfall is based on the minimum years of supply required by the PPS. Municipalities should target higher years of supply to accommodate household growth, provide market competition, and compensate for past years of underproduction.
We recommend that the province adopt the template described in the blog so municipalities can consistently calculate the adequacy of their short-term land supply by unit type.
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