Food prices are one of the most significant sources of stress for Canadians today. A cross-country, multi-university research team led by Dalhousie is empowering consumers with data-driven food price predictions.
Canada's Food Price Report (CFPR) is an annual collaboration between research partners Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia. The research team uses historical data sources, machine-learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools to forecast Canadian food prices.
The 2025 CFPR forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 3% to 5%. The average family of four is expected to spend $16,833.67 on food in 2025, an increase of up to $801.56 from last year. The current rate is 2.8%. Food prices increased at a slower than predicted rate in 2024.
Read the full report: English (PDF: 600 KBS) l French (PDF: 600 KBS)
Although there was a downward trend in inflation, Canadians are still pinching pennies. In April, Statistics Canada reported that in 2023, 22.9% of people in the ten provinces lived in a food-insecure household. That means 8.7 million people, including 2.1 million children, struggle to afford the food they need. The highest rates of food insecurity were found in Nova Scotia (28.9%), followed by Prince Edward Island (28.6%). Those living in food-insecure households are more likely to experience critical health conditions, including infectious disease, poor oral health, chronic illness, and heart disease.
In March, the Food Banks Canada Hunger Count reported a new record high for food bank visits (two million), which is a 90% increase compared to 2019. A recent survey by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab shows younger individuals are facing significant economic pressure, with approximately 40% of Gen Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) using savings or borrowing money to buy food (compared to 20% of Boomers).
Food prices are influenced by a variety of global factors, including climate change, geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and trade, food distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness, and consumer debt.
"Some impacts of adverse weather are starting to be reflected in food prices, such as more expensive meat, due to lengthy droughts in Canada's beef-producing regions," says Dr. Stuart Smyth, campus lead, University of Saskatchewan. "This has resulted in fewer cattle presently producing meat."
A shifting global landscape
Currently 60% of our agri-food exports are directed to the U.S. The recent re-election of Donald Trump could widen the gap, given his commitment to reducing American farming costs, and rolling back environmental regulations.
"The election of Donald Trump signals a trend toward an increasingly clustered agri-food trading world," says Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, project lead, Dalhousie University (Faculties of Management and Agriculture). "To safeguard our food security, Canada will need to work closely with North American partners."
The weakening of the Canadian dollar against the American dollar will likely reduce the buying power of Canadian importers in 2025.
In May, consumers attempted to fight back against corporate grocery greed by staging a boycott of Loblaws. This underscored the persistent collective frustration and distrust of large grocers among Canadian consumers. Large retailers, including Loblaws, Sobeys, and Metro have signed on to the Grocery Code of Conduct. The Code is meant to increase competition in the Canadian market and to provide more choice for consumers. Oversight to enforce the Code will be critical to its success.
"As public attention continues to focus on Canada's food systems, the price and accessibility of food has become an indication of much larger questions for Canadian consumers and producers," says Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph. "The findings of this report, while indicating continued price increases, show a gradual slowing of inflation and reflect the impact of Canada's efforts to increase resilience. A strong focus on innovation can drive further development and continue a trend of high production and increased access for Canadians."
Canada's Food Price Report helps consumers better understand the local and global food landscape and familiarizes them with past and current trends. This information enables them to make better food purchase decisions and improve their family's financial and physical health.
For more information, please read the complete Canada's Food Price Report 2025.
