This report by Frank Clayton analyzes the housing requirement forecasts by unit type for the four regional municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area and the City of Hamilton. These forecasts were prepared as part of the Municipal Comprehensive Review process, during which the upper-tier and single-tier municipalities must update their Official Plans to conform with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
The analysis illustrates how the Growth Plan represents an ambitious effort to shape land use regulations to direct how residents live, work, and interact with others throughout a vast region. This effort includes a significant shift in the composition of new housing to be built as the emphasis has shifted from single-detached houses to higher-density forms of housing.
It is clear from the forecasts that the five municipalities are planning to greatly underproduce "missing middle" housing types, like townhouses and stacked townhouses, which are the closest substitutes to the single-detached houses preferred by many households. Instead, single-detached houses are to be replaced with apartments.
The intention to replace the policy-induced shortfall of single-detached houses with apartments instead of "missing middle" housing forms will result in higher housing costs and longer commutes as households will likely move further away from employment centres in search of less expensive ground-related homes. This out-migration would be less pronounced if more "missing middle" housing was available in existing urban areas.
What is needed are ambitious targets to replace the reduced production of new single-detached houses with many more missing middle housing forms like townhouses, back-to-back townhouses, stacked townhouses and other low-rise apartments.
