On September 8, Statistics Canada's Centre for Demography released a new set of detailed demographic projections to 2041 on immigration and ethnocultural diversity for Canada and its regions. These new projections reflect the targets of the 2022-2024 Immigration Levels Plan released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada in February 2022, as well as the most recent demographic developments, including those related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Population projections for the various racialized groups are now available for Canada, the provinces, the territories, and each of the country's large metropolitan areas.
In 2041, if current trends continue, half of the Canadian population will be made up of immigrants and their Canadian-born children
According to the reference scenario, the Canadian population would reach 47.7 million in 2041, and 25.0 million of them would be immigrants or children of immigrants born in Canada, accounting for 52.4% of the total population. In 2016, this population was 14.4 million and accounted for 40.0% of the total Canadian population.
The projected percentage in 2041 could range from 49.8% to 54.3% depending on the projection scenario. Several scenarios are proposed to reflect uncertainty about the future evolution of demographic components and to measure the sensitivity of projections to certain factors.to readers.
