TORONTO METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY
Quantifying Lower and Moderate-Income Households in Housing Need in the Greater Toronto Area

The affordability crisis, which is exceedingly impacting lower-income households, is being mis-addressed by concerns and housing subsidies targeted at providing affordable housing for middle-income households.

This paper by Frank Clayton and Graeme Paton explores the latest data on households with Core Housing Need (CHN) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). CHN refers to households unable to secure affordable, suitable and adequate housing in the marketplace.

Highlights include:

• There was a sizable increase in the number of GTA households in CHN between 1991 (184,900) and 2021 (348,500) though the percentage of all households in CHN was about the same in both years (about 15%)
• GTA renters are much more likely to be in CHN (25-35%) than owners (around 10%)
• A temporary drop occurred in both the number and percentage of GTA households in CHN between 2016 and 2021, including renters and owners- due to short-lived pandemic income support provided by governments.
• While more renters paying 30% or more of their income for shelter are in CHN (70%), much fewer owner households (25%) are in similar positions. Many owners are non-CHN households paying 30% or more for shelter as they are "over-housed" by choice.
• Within the GTA, the city of Toronto has the majority of CHN households (59%) though its share of all households is 47%.

For middle-income households, the thrust by governments should be increasing the overall supply of housing to tilt market conditions in favour of buyers and renters. This would also help lower-income households by reducing the competition for existing affordable housing from middle-income households.

Public housing subsidy dollars should be targeted at providing affordable housing for lower-income households, unlike the current situation where most subsidy dollars for new housing benefit middle-income groups (e.g. the National Housing Strategy and Toronto's Housing Now initiative).

Read our report here